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比特币再暴涨也别入坑!这位外国专家给出5大原因

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黑客偏爱、专家看跌,5点原因告诉你,比特币涨再快也不能买
比特币再暴涨也别入坑!这位外国专家给出5大原因
近期,比特币的价格出现暴涨,这使得它再一次成为了热点话题。不过,仍然有些人对比特币持怀疑态度,而且他们的怀疑是有理由的。Lily Katz 日前在 Bloomberg 上发表了题为“Five Big Reasons Why People Are Still Skeptical About Bitcoin”的文章,详解了人们对比特币仍持怀疑态度的五大原因。

本文为双语文章,且文后有对重点词汇的解析。以下为正文。

Naysayers point to decline that followed steep climb in 2013.

比特币的否定者认为,比特币价格在2013年疯狂攀升到顶峰,之后迎来下跌。

Dot-com bubble and tulip craze show past market corrections.

比特币类似于互联网公司泡沫和郁金香狂热,而市场终将会纠错。

Bitcoin’s astronomical rally has cryptocurrency bulls feeling vindicated. Not so fast, skeptics say.

比特币价格反弹惊人,仿佛宣告了加密货币春天的来临。不过有人质疑:恐怕牛市的到来还没那么快。

The digital currency’s more than 100 percent surge in the past two months looks eerily familiar, argue the bears, pointing to November 2013, when the price quintupled in short order to top $1,000 for the first time. By Valentine’s Day it was worth around half that, and spent the better part of the next two years languishing below $500.

看跌者表示,在过去两个月里比特币价格蹿高了一倍有余,带给人的是一种诡异的熟悉感——2013年11月,比特币价格一度猛涨五倍至1000美元触顶,而到情人节前后这一数字就已腰斩,随后两年中的大部分时间,比特币价格一直在500美元以下徘徊。

Then it absolutely exploded — jumping more than $1,400 in two months. At its height last week, one bitcoin could buy about two ounces of gold. Its champions touted the arrival of blockchain into the mainstream, the coin’s underlying technology which they say can lift the poor out of poverty and make transactions more secure, inexpensive and efficient.

这次又是爆炸式的增长——两个月内价格猛涨,超过了1400美元。在上周价格最高的时候,一个单位的比特等价于两盎司的黄金。其支持者吹捧着区块链技术,把它主流化,他们吹嘘道:区块链技术作为比特币的技术基础能帮助人们脱贫致富,让交易更加安全、平价、高效。

But signs of a top have emerged, detractors warn. On May 25, bitcoin surged more than $300 to a record only to turn tail and close little changed. The $600 round trip was the biggest daily swing in its history. It then slumped 8 percent the next day. Bitcoin was down 1.5 percent to $2,255.50 as of 12:35 p.m. in New York. For bears, that kind of volatility shows the asset’s unreliability as a store of value.

但批评的声音也警告说,这一波行情的峰值已经出现。5月25日,比特币价格大涨300美元,创下历史新高后立即回弹,收盘价几乎没有什么变化。大涨大跌600美元创下了比特币历史上最大单日波动。5月26日,比特币价格就下挫了8%,纽约时间下午12点35分,比特币价格下降1.5个百分点到2255.50美元。对看跌者来说,这样的波动性表明,比特币不适合作为一种价值贮藏的手段。

比特币再暴涨也别入坑!这位外国专家给出5大原因

Here are some other reasons why they warn caution is warranted:

他们警告人们谨慎对待比特币很有必要,还有其他几个原因:

Safety Questions 安全问题

This month’s ransomware attacks serve as a reminder that bitcoin is still beloved by hackers and criminals because of its anonymity. The cryptocurrency plunged in 2014 after Tokyo-based Mt. Gox — then the largest bitcoin exchange — said it had been breached and then filed for bankruptcy. Its value sank again in August 2016 after hackers stole about $69 million from Hong Kong-based Bitfinex. The exchange has since repaid its customers.

本月爆发的勒索病毒攻击事件警示人们:黑客和罪犯由于其匿名性而对比特币十分偏爱。东京的Mt. Gox是当时最大的比特币交易平台,2014年因违规而申请破产后,加密货币的价格急跌。2016年8月,在香港的Bitfinex被黑客盗窃6900万后,Mt. Gox的价值进一步缩水。该平台已经偿还了其顾客的损失。

Scaling Debate 规模辩论

The bitcoin community has been split for more than a year on how to upgrade its blockchain. The time and fees necessary to verify transactions have climbed to record highs, making it more difficult for businesses to use the currency as a means of payment. While bitcoin executives have said that 2017 might be the year the cryptocurrency really starts to scale, others aren’t so sure.

比特币界就如何升级其区块链而产生分歧已经有1年多了。确保交易所需的时间和金钱已经攀升到了记录最高点,这让比特币作为一种商业上的支付手段十分困难。虽然比特币主管已经表示2017年也许是加密货币真正成气候的一年,不过其他人不置可否。

Last week, more than 50 companies signed a pact to speed up transactions, but ideological differences have prevented similar agreements — like the one reached last year in Hong Kong — from actually being implemented. The much-touted SegWit upgrade was also released in October, but only a third of the community has embraced it. If the latest proposal fails to gain traction and the deadlock continues, digital currency users may dump bitcoin in favor of alt-coins that offer better blockchains.

上周,超过50家公司签订了加速交易的协定,但思想差异可能会使这类协议在落实起来困难重重——就像去年在香港达成的那份协议一样。备受吹捧的SegWit升级协议于10月份出炉,但业界采纳的公司不过三分之一罢了。如果这份最新的协议仍旧不能形成合力打破僵局,数字货币的用户们可能会抛弃比特币,转而成为有着更好区块链技术的其他加密货币(如以太币、瑞波币等)的拥趸。

比特币再暴涨也别入坑!这位外国专家给出5大原因

Rival Digital Currencies 棋逢对手

As the surge sends the cryptocurrency world into a frenzy, it can be easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. While bitcoin’s value has increased more than 100 percent since the beginning of the year, its slice of the pie has shrunk as its digital cousins steal some of the spotlight. There are an estimated 700 rivals, according to Ron Quaranta, chairman of the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance.

加密货币大爆发,整个币界群魔狂舞,稍不留神就错观全局。虽然自年初以来比特币价格涨幅超过一倍,但其他电子货币粉墨登场,硬生生分走了比特币的蛋糕份额。华尔街区块链联盟主席Ron Quaranta预计,比特币的对手有不下700个。

Bitcoin dominated about half of the overall digital currency market as of Friday, down from around 85 percent in February, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s share increased to about 20 percent. Some token fans aren’t sweating it though, as they say bitcoin’s potential demise doesn’t really matter as long as another digital currency takes hold.

CoinMarketCap.com的数据显示,截至周五,比特币仍占据着电子货币市场的半壁江山,但二月份的时候,它还坐拥着85%的市场份额。同时,以太币的份额上升到了20%。不过这些电子货币的拥趸们却并不担心这个,他们表示只要有另外的电子货币在,比特币的潜在失败无关紧要。

Not Recognized By Governments 不被当局认可

The general public doesn’t understand bitcoin, and many regulators still don’t either, which makes it tough to regulate. In 2015, New York started issuing controversial licenses to cryptocurrency companies, but only three had been issued as of mid-January, according to Coinbase, as many startups couldn’t afford the costs of applying.

大众对比特币其实是不了解的,许多监管者也是,这就使监管颇具难度。2015年,纽约市开始对加密货币公司颁发执照,这一举动引发了争议。但根据Coinbase的消息,纽约市直到一月中期也只发放了三份执照,因为对许多刚起步的公司来说,申请执照的费用过高,它们难以承担。

In January, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority asked the public for help identifying the potential risks of blockchain. Two months later, bitcoin plummeted after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected a proposal by the Winklevoss twins for a publicly traded fund based on the digital currency.

一月份的时候,美国金融业监管局向公众寻求帮助,希望能够找到区块链的潜在风险。又过了两个月,在文克莱沃斯兄弟一项基于电子货币的公开交易基金的提案被美证监会否决后,比特币价格暴跌。

比特币再暴涨也别入坑!这位外国专家给出5大原因

In a report last week about blockchain in China, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein wrote that while the technology could benefit Chinese banks, it’s unlikely to start a financial revolution.

上周中国关于区块链的一篇报道中,Sanford C. Bernstein的分析员写道,尽管这项技术会使中国银行受益良多,但这样的改革在中国金融界恐怕难以展开。

“We believe blockchain application is more likely to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary in developing countries like China,” the analysts said. “Aside from the conservative regulatory attitudes toward financial innovations, the constraint of confidentiality and performance of blockchain technology would make it best positioned to be enterprise-oriented rather than consumer-end.”

“我们相信对中国这样的发展中国家来说,区块链技术的应用更多的是进步而非革命,”分析员表示,“除了对金融创新的保守监管态度,区块链科技保密和绩效的限制可能使其最佳定位不在消费端而在企业端。”

Bubbles Burst 泡沫风险

Whether it’s Holland’s tulip-bulb craze in the 17th century or the Internet-stock frenzy of the late 1990s, history shows that markets self correct. Speculative markets usually run out of steam at some point. Determining the trigger is always the hard part. Given the breathtaking run in bitcoin as of late, some say it’s tough to believe the oft-cited mantra that this time is different.

不管是17世纪荷兰的郁金香狂热还是20世纪90年代晚期的互联网股票泡沫,历史总是展示了长期中市场自我纠正的能力。投机市场总会玩脱,而把握住临界点则是难上加难。人们常常把“这次不一样”挂在嘴边,不过考虑到最近比特币的热火朝天,这句话可能并不那么令人信服。

重点词汇

  • bitcoin:比特币
  • blockchain:区块链
  • Dot-com bubble:互联网泡沫
  • ransomware attacks:勒索病毒攻击
  • digital currency:数字货币
  • cryptocurrency:加密货币
  • Ethereum:以太坊


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